On Oct 15, a month after the Credit Crisis exploded onto the public’s radar screen, I took a quick snapshot of the Boulder luxury real estate market (defined as homes priced at $1 million or higher), and what I found was the beginning stages of a slow down.

At that point, however, I only had a month’s worth of data, so the signals were mixed, but certainly not positive. See Boulder Luxury Home Market: Fall Out from the Bail Out

Now, we have a full 2 and a half months worth of data, Sept 15 to Nov 30, to analyze the impact of the Credit Crisis on the Boulder luxury market…and the results are by no means pretty, but perhaps not as ugly as one might suspect.

No question, the transactional volume, as measured by the number of closes in the period of 9/15 to 11/30, are down this year. 10 homes closed in Boulder proper at $1 million or more this year compared to 17 closes last year. That’s a 41% drop.

The leading indicator of the number of homes that have gone under contract tells a more promising story. 16 homes in 2008 went under contract during the period compared to 18 in 2007. Statistically flat. Not horrible.

However, the absorption rate in the million dollar market remains a concern. As of Dec 1, 148 homes were listed in Boulder proper priced at $1 million or more. Only 9 of those homes are under contract.

In the last month, only 4 homes have actually closed with a price higher than a million. An inventory of 148 homes and 4 closes per month translates to a market absorption rate of 37 months.

If you have 3 years to sell your home, no problem…but most sellers don’t!

In this market, only the most attractive properties, boasting a rare location, a huge lot, drop dead views, the wow factor of impeccable design, or a combination of all these attributes, is going to sell…and on top of all that, the home must be priced within reason. Not necessarily a deal, just within reason.

So where does the Boulder luxury market go from here? My prediction is that demand for high end Boulder homes will remain soft through the end of the year. Sellers who have to sell, such as folks who’ve already moved or spec builders experiencing a cash crunch, will cut their prices, and we’ll see some good, perhaps even great, deals between Thanksgiving through Super Bowl Sunday.

During this time, I think we’ll see Jumbo mortgage rates fall as the Credit markets continue to thaw, increasing the demand for high end homes.

As a result, look for the Boulder luxury market to pick up in the first part ‘09 and prices to stabilize in the Spring.

Of course, if unemployment in Boulder County spikes and the daily topic of conversation again becomes the Great Depression, all bets are off!

Well, it’s been over a month since that fateful day on September 15. The day that Lehman went bankrupt and the Credit Crisis truly went mainstream.

Since then, the DOW has dropped more than 20% and the Great Depression is a daily topic of conversation.

Within that contextual background, my gut told me that the real estate market most severely impacted would be the high end market. In Boulder, “high end” means homes $1 million and over.

My hunch- the market for Boulder luxury homes slowed dramatically in the 30 days from Sept 15 to Oct 15.

Why? The Credit Crisis and the resulting collapse on Wall Street in the stock, bond, and credit markets had a much larger impact, both financially as well as psychologically, on potential home buyers in the luxury market. High net worth folks are typically more in tune with what’s happening on Wall Street and have a lot of their assets invested in the financial markets, so when a 156 year old firm like Lehman goes under, it means something.

These same buyers also often have the luxury of simply sitting on the sidelines until the dust settles and order is restored in the financial markets. They don’t have to buy or sell a home or move, so they hold off, thereby brining the high end market to a screeching halt.

That was my hunch. But what does the data say?

Market data for the high-end Boulder market reveals a mixed message. It’s a story of The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly. First…

The Good:

Contrary to my suspicion that the high-end market came to a standstill on Sept 15, the number of homes priced above $1 million in Boulder proper that went under contract from 9/15/08 to 10/15/08 was 10, twice as many as the 5 homes that went under contract in the same period a year ago.

Wow, the high end market is on fire! Credit Crisis……Schmedit Crisis….luxury buyers remain above the fray and my hunch of a slow down is all wrong! Well, not so fast…

The Bad:

The number of million plus homes that actually closed and sold from 9/15/08 to 10/15/08 in Boulder proper was 3. That’s right….3 closes in a 30 day period. Ouch! Last year, 12 million plus homes closed in the same period. From 12 to 3, that’s a 75% reduction in transactional volume year over year.

The Ugly:

A key statistic in determining the state of a given market is the Absorption Rate. It’s a fancy term that describes how long it will take at current sales volumes to absorb all of the homes currently on the market. The actual figure is determined by dividing the number of active listings by the number of closed sales in the last month.

This is where things get ugly in the Boulder high end market. As of 10/15/08, there were 140 active single family homes listed in Boulder proper for more than $1 million. At 3 closes in the previous month, that comes out to staggeringly high 46.7 months of inventory on the market. In other words, it will take nearly 4 years to absorb today’s inventory of high priced homes.

In short, based on my own feel for the market and the actual data since Sept 15, I believe that the market for higher priced homes in Boulder and all of the other luxury markets across the Front Range are going to slow considerably through the Fall.

I would not be surprised by a 50-75% reduction in sales in Q4 of this year compared to last year for homes above $1 million. I will keep you posted with updates as new market data comes available.

Q: Where in the World is the Front Range?

A: The Colorado Front Range is an informal, colloquial term for Colorado’s most populated region.  It’s just east of the foothills of the Rocky Mountains, and contains the state’s largest cities and suburbs.

From north to south, Colorado Front Range communities include:

As well as:

Centennial, Larkspur, Greenwood Village, Lone Tree, Colorado Springs, Fountain, Pueblo, Estes Park, and others.  View a complete list of cities Colorado HomeFinder serves.

Colorado has a long and rich history beginning with the gold rush attracting residents from far and wide, and today, the state’s economy is diversified, noted for its concentration of scientific research and high-technology industries.  Other booming industries here include food processing, transportation equipment, machinery, chemical products, minerals, and tourism.

But with the help of Coors Brewing Company in Golden,  Colorado also produces the largest amount of beer of any state. Not coincidentally, Coors Field in LoDo is always a good place to pick up a brew. But it’s not just all fun and games.  The federal government is also a major economic force in the state, hosting important federal facilities including NORAD and the US Air Force Academy in Colorado Springs. NIST makes its home in Boulder, and the U.S. Geological Survey and other government agencies are located at the Denver Federal Center in Lakewood. In downtown Denver, you’ll find the governmental landmarks of the Denver Mint and the 10th Circuit Court of Appeals.

In any case, when you visit Colorado, you’re going to want to drink up.  Cheers to that.

Consider the vast area of Colorado: Colorado bears the distinction of being the highest low point of any U.S. state. The Colorado Mineral Belt, stretching from the San Juan Mountains in the southwest to Boulder and Central City on the front range, contains most of the historic gold- and silver-mining districts of Colorado.

At the southwest corner of the state, in an intersection commonly called the Four Corners, it is possible to stand in four states at once: Arizona, Utah, New Mexico and Colorado.  And then there are the “fourteeners”–peaks that rise to or above 14,000 feet above sea level.

To look for the property that’s right for you in this vast expanse that attracts national attention with its natural and man-made offerings, turn to our maps, complete with Google’s satellite imagery and detail, and explore:

• Map the 100 Newest Colorado listings
• Map Colorado houses
• Map Colorado condos
• Map Colorado land
• Map Colorado farms and ranches
• Map Colorado income property

When browsing your preferred locales at COhomefinder these days, you’ll find a new-ish feature called Top Categories. And if you happen to be browsing Colorado Springs listings, you’ll find under the “top” category Colorado Springs top neighborhoods, school listings and more.

Particularly if you’re new to learning about Colorado homes and real estate, or the Colorado Springs area, the “top” listings are a great place to start, since these categories are of interest to most home buyers getting a jump on the market. And if top Colorado Springs neighborhoods are where most of your interest lies, the following are today’s Colorado Springs top picks–the neighborhoods with the most activity and buyer interest. They are:

Happy hunting. It’s sure to be a success when you take it from the top.

Between Denver and its suburbs and Colorado Springs and its suburbs is an hour-long stretch of the I-25 highway that is booming with new and existing populations. Once considered “the boonies” or “no man’s land,” this corridor joining two of Colorado’s largest cities is now known as a collection of individual communities with lives and personalities of their own. Here are a few of the recognizable ones with an active roster of home listings:

• Centennial–As the closest community to Denver, Centennial is big with commuters who work somewhere within the Denver metro area, or the Denver Tech Center. Centennial is growing such that its municipal airport is the 3rd busiest general aviation airport and among the top 25 busiest of all types of airports.
• Castle Rock–A long-loved suburb of Denver, it’s the sister city to Highlands Ranch and Parker, CO. Castle Rock is the home to Denver Metro’s most-visited collection of outlet shops, but remains a place where scenic and natural beauty reigns. It’s quiet, prairie landscape with spectacular mountain views is hard to beat.
• Larkspur–A quiet country respite, where Renaissance Fair lovers flock to in the summer months. Just 30 minutes to Denver, Larkspur is the place where accessible amenities and the country life are not necessarily mutually exclusive, although they could be if privacy and solitude were your priority.
• Palmer Lake–The last cluster of homes before entering Pike National Forest. Did someone say scenic? Palmer Lake neighborhoods are all within reach of its namesake body of water, and views to die for.
• Monument–The hill that divides the north end of Colorado Springs and the Air Force Academy from the rest of the stretch. Just outside the Gleneagle community, Monument is a little town of its own served by the Lewis-Palmer school system, which serves Palmer Lake, Monument, Woodmoor and the northern part of the Black Forest area of Colorado Springs.

One (or more) Step(s) Beyond:

Manitou 4 listings today (check in for up-to-date data). Just up the canyon that winds a few miles west up the mountain that abuts Colorado Springs.

Fountain 8 listings today. Just ten minutes south of Colorado Springs.

Pueblo 23 listings today. The next major town between Colorado Springs and the New Mexico border.

Colorado City (which is not to be confused with the sensationalist news from Colorado City, Arizona) 2 listings today.

Walsenburg 9 listings today. Isolated and wide-open, Walsenburg is where you’ll find plenty of acreage. A tiny little town that serves as the gateway to the San Luis Valley by way of La Veta Pass.

Trinidad 4 listings today. A “last chance” town before entering New Mexico. Trinidad is a charming little town that has worked hard to retain vestiges of its Old West roots.

Just because the world-famous Bolder Boulder race is over this year, it’s not time to hang up your sneakers. Because, as if there wasn’t enough to do in Estes Park this summer, the Estes Park version of the Bolder Boulder–the Sombrero Trail Run–is taking place on Saturday, September 13, 2008.

All the running, hiking, climbing, and outdoor frolicking aren’t the only things that Estes and Boulder have in common, however. For starters, take a look at the geography of Boulder (map of Boulder homes) and Estes Park (map of Estes Park homes.) Among other things, they’re both sweetheart towns with a quality of life standard that includes great natural scenery and surroundings, a laid-back, down-home atmosphere, and scads of arts and culture experiences. In both Boulder and Estes Park, downtown is where the action is, with most full-time residents taking to the outskirts of town to build their nests.

In Estes Park, today’s most active neighborhood markets include:

In Boulder, today’s most active neighborhood markets include:

If you’re a homebuyer who’s considering either town, take your own private tour with either an Estes Park REALTOR or a Boulder REALTOR for an expert opinion on the market and lifestyle of these two Colorado keepers.

If you mentioned the name “Clement’s Addition“ to anyone under the age of sixty, you would likely be met with a confused look. No, Clement’s Addition is not the name of the contracting company your friend hired to pop the top on his two-bedroom bungalow. Although it’s one of Denver’s more interesting, celebrated, and historic communities, Clement’s is not always recognized by name. Much like a lesser-known working actor, you’ll recognize Clement’s Addition when you see it; you just didn’t know its name.

Where It Is: Southeast of Lower Downtown (LoDo) between 20th and 22nd Streets (see map of 20th Street), from Tremont Place (map of Tremont) to Glenarm Place (map of Glenarm).

What It Is: Clement’s Addition is a little sliver of old Denver; it’s the oldest intact block of housing in the city, along with Curtis Park, which remains remarkably intact north of 23rd Street (map of 23rd Steet). South of the line, however, there isn’t much residential remaining with any regularity. The exception is the Arapahoe Square area, with what is becoming a less sparsely-housed neighborhood just west of Clement’s. Clement’s Addition proper is the one surviving block that staved off the bulldozers and wrecking balls of the mid-70’s that made way for the 1976 Winter Olympics Housing.

What’s Nearby: The arts and lit scene, eg the Thomas Hornsby Ferril House on 2123 Downing Street, now home to the Lighthouse Writers Workshop and formerly other fine nonprofit organizations in service to Denver and its people (Ferril was Colorado’s Poet Laureate from the late ’70s until his death in 1988). Also Benedict Fountain Park, Curtis Park, Arapahoe Square, Ballpark, Central Business District, LoDo, Park Avenue Addition, and numerous lightrail stations.

What’s to See: A new 32-story luxury high-rise at 1950 Welton Street, historic single-family homes, historic office conversions, brand-new, one-of-a-kind brownstones at 2137 Glenarm Place, and more.

Also Known As: A part of the greater neighborhood area known as Uptown.

A New-New Kind of Peloton

For those of you who were around Boulder during its first tech heyday, you may still refer to the area around 33rd and Arapahoe as the former site of the Exabyte campus. No more.

Because now with an undeniable presence, including a 22,000 foot community center that was finished and fully functional even before the first residents had set foot in their homes, The Peloton is going to teach you a lesson in what’s new at 3601 Arapahoe.

What’s There: Brand new single-floor condos with high-end finishes, such as slab granite counter tops, maple cabinets, and stainless steel appliances. Top of the line landscaping, private courtyards and a dog park. And that community center everyone’s been talking about – think movie theater with leather seats and heated rooftop pool for year-round shenanigans. Secured underground and surface parking and lobby bike lockers in a mixed-use environment. Choose from sixty different floor plans ranging from about 800 to 1900 square feet, each with a private patio or balcony. Oh, and did somebody say mountain views?

How much: Priced from the mid-300s to the mid-900s and up, 38 of the 385 units will be part of Boulder’s affordable-housing program.

Other attractions: Walking distance to 29th Street Mall (with transit to Village coming soon), easy commuter access to highway 36 via Foothills Parkway, University of Colorado, the Foothills Campus of Boulder Community Hospital, downtown Boulder, Louisville, Lafayette, and NoBo area neighborhoods.

Photo by Flickr–Creative Commons, by cmrowell

Fair Bear Warning

This isn’t one of those jokes that starts with a rabbi, a priest, and a minister walking into a bar. It does involve bears, however.

Into the Wild (Kind of)
When relocating to Estes Park, Boulder, Evergreen, Lyons, and other towns with lots of lurking wildlife, new residents find themselves charged with the task of making slight lifestyle changes to accommodate their more rugged environment.

To wit…
The Bear Wagon recently made the rounds in the South Boulder neighborhood, or SoBo as we’ve been known to call it. It’s mission: educate residents and renters on what kinds of attractants can lure bears and other wildlife, such as mountain lions, into the neighborhood, thus endangering people and the bears themselves.

Why?
Bears who are found making a nuisance of themselves in residential areas are transported back into the wilderness, unless they become repeat offenders, in which case they are eventually destroyed. To prevent such a lose-lose situation, residents in areas with high wildlife populations are encouraged to leave their trash containers inside garages and sheds, or to bear-proof them.

The Bear Basics
Leaving food out is always a no-no, and in towns farther into the mountains, such as Nederland, it’s recommended that residents take extra precautions to protect not only their disposables, but their domestic animals and livestock as well.

Photo by Flickr–Creative Commons, by ground.zero

View of Estes Park looking west

In the spring of 2008 Estes Park homes and property owners were thrilled to learn that the town had won four different and important honors as a top place to spend a day or a vacation. They were: The Weather Channel, Kids Pages, the Greeley Tribune and TripAdvisor.com, all of which touted Estes as a top travel destination. It would stand to reason, then, that Estes Park is a pretty nice place to live, too. (Here’s a map of where the 100 newest Estes Park home listings are.)

Geographically, it’s not far from Fort Collins, which was named as one of Money Magazine’s best places to live in 2006. And with the Estes Park climate, amenities, and accessibility to Boulder to the south, Fort Collins and Windsor to the north, and Loveland and Greeley to the east, Estes Park lives at the residential intersection of outdoor recreation, the arts, and business. By the way, how many towns can say they’re home to a 14-thousand-foot-peak and a national park (Rocky Mountain National Park) full of the flora and fauna Colorado is known for?

Take a spin by some Estes Park homes and real estate, and see its surrounding areas for a virtual taste of what the press and visitors have known since before the (in)famous Stanley Hotel broke ground: that when it comes to accessible mountain living, Estes Park marks the spot.

Photo by –Creative Commons, by rjones0856

If your bathroom, kitchen or floor tiles are looking a little rough, consider renewing the grout, especially if re-tiling an area is out of the question. Considering that grout is dramatically less expensive than tile, your main decision has to do with choosing a grout color, which was recently simplified at Ask a Floor Guy.

There are hundreds of grout colors, it’s true, but according to everyone’s favorite flooring expert, you can simplify your choices in grouts by:

• matching your tile color
• choosing contrasting grout color
• choosing a neutral grout color

Keep in mind that darker grouts tend to hide stains better, while lighter colors can showcase the tiles or accent a design. In any case, re-grouting is bound to improve and freshen the overall look of your home, and therefore is a great addition to any home seller’s strategy. Happy home selling.

Photo by Flickr–Creative Commons, by juhansonin

If you’ve never been to South Boulder, or SoBo as Boulderites have started to call it, it’s the end of Boulder off closest to Golden, and is also sometimes referred to as the smaller neighborhood components of Table Mesa, Martin Acres, Devil’s Thumb, Shanahan Ridge, and others.

Here’s who lives in SoBo, according to Zillow:

• Fab Families – High-income, high-profile couples with children.
• Corporate Cats – High-income, high-expense, “upwardly mobile” urban singles.
• Bright Lights, Big City – Very mobile, well-traveled singles from the city.

That’s pretty interesting, considering:

• The high concentration of retirees there.
• A higher concentration of residents hailing from the Northeast.
• SoBo-ites tend to get to work by bicycle, and make good use of the South Boulder Recreation Center.

Take a personalized tour through SoBo and draw your own conclusions.

The name LoHi sounds like something you eat in Hawaii, or a gambling strategy you’d use up in Black Hawk or Central City, but if you’re familiar with LoDo (lower downtown), you know that LoHi is the new-new mashup neighborhood name that’s gaining popularity with the Denver crowd.

It’s short for “lower” and “Highland,” of course, which is why you’ll find it between Speer Blvd (map of Speer), I-25, 38th Ave (map of 38th Ave) and Federal (map of Federal), near Hishorn Park and the also new-new LoHi Marketplace.

Maybe we’ll see you there. Wouldn’t it be great if the nearby hangout Lola Coastal Mexican Restaurant started throwing luaus?